Looking at DOST's Iron-Fortified Rice

Checking at the DOST's website, there are quite a fair number of priority projects that are being pushed by Secretary Mario Montejo. Examples of these are the mosquito Ovicidal/Larvicidal Trap that would address the dengue problem by effectively curbing the Aedes mosquito population and the PINOY or Package for the Improvement Nutrition of Young Children that would address malnutrition problem. The same importance were given to the promotion of local technologies, such as the hazard warning system, mass transit system, courseware for PC Tablets for school children, lengthening of brown rice shelf life,  and the development of iron-fortified rice (IFR), among others1.

DOST Building in Bicutan, Taguig City

With these priority projects, I decided to check on the iron-fortified rice that DOST is pursuing. According to DOST, the said rice has more nutritional value because of the added iron. It is made from a blend polished rice grains which slightly turns grayish when cooked because of the added fortificant or iron rice premix. According to the news2, the rice is also part of the Food for School Program (FFSP), which is an accelerated hunger-mitigation program of the government. The IFR is being distributed in schools under the FFSP because of its nutritional benefit. Regular intake of IFR, which contains iron prevents anemia, improves mental and physical development, maintains alertness and endurance, increases productivity and resistance to infection, among others. The FFSP is being implemented by the Department of Education (DepEd) and the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD), while NFA provides the supply of IFR. According to Jessup Navarro, National Food Authority (NFA) administrator, it has distributed more than 6.7 million bags of IFR under the Food for School Program since it was implemented in 2004.

To create futures for the IFR, the two Foresight Techniques that I used are the Trend Analysis and the Forecasting by Analogy. Both of these foresight techniques are very much straightforward and its applications are an effective tool to predict future events.

TREND ANALYSIS

The selection of the Trend Analysis method is one of the most straightforward and intuitive first steps in assessing whether the program of iron-fortified rice as part of the Food for School Program is worth pursuing. The trend would analyze the health outcomes among the public school children which can be fully understood if their frequency and distribution are examined in terms of per grade level, per school, and time. Trend analysis is standard for public health surveillance and monitoring particularly if there is a program being introduced that needs further evaluation. A study of time trends may focus on one or more of the following3:

The overall pattern of change in an indicator over time. The most general goal of trend analysis for public health surveillance is to discern whether the level of a health status, service, or systems indicator has increased or decreased over time, and if it has, how quickly or slowly the increase or decrease has occurred. In terms of the FFSP Program, the level of health status among the public school children is the primary objective. A presentation of an improved health among these students within the short period of time is an indicator whether the iron-fortified rice is a success or not. 

Comparing one time period to another time period. This form of trend analysis is carried out in order to assess the level of an indicator before and after an event. Evaluating the impact of programs, policy shifts, or medical and other technical advances may call for what is sometimes called interrupted time series analysis. This is again to address the nutritional value of the IFR, and result of the studies should also indicate the health status of the beneficiary before it is included into the said program.  

Comparing one geographic area to another. When comparing the level of an indicator across geographic areas, only looking at one point in time can be misleading. For instance, one area may have a higher value on an indicator in one year, but a lower value in the next - analyzing the trend over several years can give a more precise comparison of the two areas. Here, comparison may be conducted in three areas - Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao schools recipient of the said program.

Making future projections. Projecting rates into the future is a means of monitoring progress toward a national or local objective or simply providing an estimate of the rate of future occurrence. Projecting the potential number of future cases can aid in the planning of needed health and other related services and in defining corresponding resource requirements. Result of the studies may indicate whether the accepted projection rate, i.e. the health of the recipients of the IFR based on the gathered data may highlight useful information that may support decision making regarding the future success of the program.

Thus, not only the Department of Education (DepEd), the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD), and the National Food Authority (NFA), but also the Department of Health in cooperation with the Local Government Units (LGUs) should also be involved in order to determine the effectivity of IFR among recipients of the said program.

FORECASTING BY ANALOGY

Forecasting by analogy on the other hand, is also very straightforward as there is a similar program during Marcos’ term in the early seventies which is the Vitamin-Laced Bread (Nutriban) and the Textured-Vegetable Protein (TVP) to supplement nutrition that may also be compared to the IFR/FFSP Program.

Due to the limitation of material on TVP, I just focused on the Nutrition Bun or Nutriban that I got from another website4. According to the write-up, the bread was introduced in the Philippines during the early seventies at public schools to supplement nutrition. It was a donation mainly from the United States with some coming from Australia, Canada, France and the United Kingdom. That was during the heightened food and gas crisis that occurred in the early 70’s in the Philippines. Nutriban is similar to the local “monay bread” but bigger, most likely as twice or thrice to its present size and has a real solid make, unlike the pan de sal and other local breads full of air inside. Made up of ingredients such as wheat, baking powder, corn starch, flour and milk. The nutritional bun tastes good with any fillings but most prefer with margarine, peanut butter or coconut jam.

It was originally delivered to the Philippines as a food aide to help with nutrition, with hundred thousands of metric tons stored all over government storage facilities, later sent to public schools for free consumption at first. To generate funds for local public school activities, it was later sold at 5 centimo when the price of pan-de-sal was 15 centimo per piece. Not a bad price at all considering its enormous size 4 times compared with pan-de-sal, with its nutritional ingredients. As the supply of Nutriban slowly depleted in 1976, only a few public schools in Metro Manila and in the rural areas continued to serve the bread and in 1977, it totally lost its supplies.

No one in the bread making business dared to copy its ingredient for mass consumption since most of its contents are expensive and selling it to the public at a price lower than the popular breads is losing money. Thus Nutriban became extinct but people still remember it as one of the best cheap bread served in the country.

The present P-Noy administration would actually learn a lot from this “Nutriban” scenario. Given the facts, they would be able to properly analyze on how they could sustain the IFR/FFSP Program in the future. Different products yet the same offerings, forecasting by analogy between IFR and Nutribun, would be able to analyze past event that may be an effective and helpful tool for future applications.

In relation to the concept presented by W. Brian Arthur in “The Second Economy”, that according to him, “Digitization is creating a second economy that’s vast, automatic, and invisible - thereby bringing the biggest change since the Industrial Revolution”5. Since his article is all things about digital that would replace the physical economy, the underlying notion is still about CHANGE. How people would interact, work, etc., in the middle of these advanced digital economy, could be perceived as people benefitting from it. What we perceive now as what Arthur implies are drastic change but as we go along or nearing towards that perceived economy, we may realize that it is not that “perceived drastic” after all because people are being introduced to these changes layer by layer. 

The same notion with the project of the DOST on the iron-fortified rice. Introduction into the market may not be very well adapted at first but little by little, with the ongoing acceptance rate on IFR starting from the grade school level, people would eventually accept the product that would become part of their system. 

Currently, the acceptance studies of IFR conducted by the National Food Authority (NFA) - Food Development Center among respondents in three elementary schools in Luzon, the Visayas and Mindanao from August to November 2009 among household family members of 301 Grade 1 pupils with 1,258 respondents in Camarin Elementary School in Caloocan City, North City Elementary School in Dumaguete City, Negros Oriental and Libertad Central Elementary School in Butuan City, Agusan del Norte. Using the home-use test, results of the studies conducted in these areas indicated a high level of acceptability of IFR among the respondents, with a total of 90 percent willing to buy IFR.

The surveys also registered a mean rating of 7.5 for overall liking which corresponds to a descriptor of “likes moderately” in a nine-point Hedonic Scale. Based also on these three studies, an average of 62.3 percent of the respondents were willing to buy IFR at a price range of PhP18.00-PhP18.95/kg while 15 were willing to buy IFR even at a higher price. Based on the survey, the respondents generally liked the odor and flavor of IFR when they were given samples for tasting even if its color has changed into grayish because of the added fortificant or iron rice premix.

Of the 301 participating-families in the survey conducted, only 103 Grade 1 pupils at the Camarin Elementary School in Caloocan City, with 451 respondents, were recipients of the IFR under the Food for School Program (FFSP). As beneficiaries of the FFSP, pupils received a kilogram of IFR for a specific number of school days in exchange for their attendance in school. The rest of the respondents from Dumaguete and Butuan City were not direct participants to the FFSP.

Studies showed that respondents who were not beneficiaries of FFSP in Dumaguete City and Butuan City expressed their willingness to buy IFR even at a price of more than PhP21/kg.

These acceptance studies showing favorable responses of the IFR are an indication of the success penetration rate among the beneficiaries already. Though, policies need to be there in order to fully maximize IFR, that would benefit the school children and our country in the long-term.

The school administrators may have to play an important role for the success of the program like for example, serving a cup of IFR in the school cafeterias or canteen for free. This way, they would be able to encourage these school children to eat not only IFR but nutritious food in general. In the long-run, these future generations may be used to eating IFR which may eventually be part of their system just like eating white rice. Demand may grow for IFR which may also be exported to other countries where nutrition and hunger-mitigation are a challenge. Export of IFR may be expanded through the partnership with the United Nations World Food Programme (UN-WFP).

References:

1 DOST website, region5.dost.gov.ph/index.php option=com_content&view=article&id=62&Itemid=21

2 Manila Bulletin Publishing Corporation, "Study: More Pinoys liked iron-fortified rice", 21 May 2010, mb.com.ph/articles/258330/study-more-pinoys-ironfortified-rice

3 Trend Analysis and Interpretation, “Key Concepts and Methods for Maternal and Child Health Professionals” 

4 Paraiso Philippines, "Nutriban", 15 April 2008, paraisophilippines.com/2008/04/15/nutriban/

5 The Second Economy by W. Brian Arthur, McKinsey Quarterly, October 2011